A few quick thoughts and predictions after listening to today's 9th Circuit argument, in no particular order. (Caveat: I have not read the briefs, and I've been wrong before.)
- This is not a standing case. At the very least, the state has standing to assert the harm to its university. The 9th Circuit panel isn't likely to want to decide this case on standing (although Judge Clifton might). They're going to want to address the merits, either now or after more proceedings in the district court.
- At one point the DOJ attorney said that the President's order is not reviewable, although he quickly tried to walk that back. Non-reviewability is a losing argument. It both gives the President too much power and tells the court that would be reviewing the order that it lacks the power to do so. Good luck with that one.
- This is a strange appeal. Early in the argument, the DOJ lawyer said that the government is just asking for a stay pending appeal. Here's what this means in practice. The President issued an order that would temporarily but immediately stop certain persons from entering the country. The states of Washington and Minnesota sought an order from the district court that temporarily and immediately stopped implementation of the President's order. The Department of Justice is seeking an order from the 9th Circuit that would temporarily and immediately stop the implementation of the district court's order. I don't know if this is unprecedented, but I certainly can't recall ever seeing the likes of it before.
- Both the DOJ and the states seemed to agree that there should be further proceedings in the district court; their only disagreement concerned what should happen while those proceedings are taking place. Still, the 9th Circuit judges seemed to think that they could short circuit the entire process and rule on the merits without further district court proceedings. I doubt they will do so, but they likely will impose some strict deadlines on the district court.
- After the hearing, Alan Dershowitz said that the 9th Circuit is not about to stay the district court's order because that would return everything to the chaos that existed before the district court acted. What he didn't consider is that the 9th Circuit could reverse the district court but order that the district court's stay would remain in effect for a limited period of time (say, 30 days) to give the immigration authorities and affected persons time to prepare for the travel ban.
- Judge Clifton's suggestion that there is no Establishment Clause violation if the ban affects only a small percentage of worldwide Muslims seems off the mark. An intent to harm one Muslim would be enough, assuming that all the other elements of an Establishment Clause violation exist. (Professor Dershowitz thinks those elements are not met, and he may be right.) Noah Purcell's quick answer to Judge Clifton's question on this point was excellent, by the way.
- Judge Clifton's suggestion to Noah Purcell that they should have had their evidence ready when they filed the complaint seemed unfair. The State had to react swiftly to an emergent situation. It could not reasonably have been expected to have all its evidence together at that time. That's why the rules allow for the issuance of a temporary restraining order when there is a likelihood of immediate irreparable harm, to be followed by a preliminary injunction hearing when both sides have had time to put their cases together.
- Noah Purcell has a great future ahead of him. The DOJ lawyer might too, but this President isn't likely to wait to find out. Expect a different lawyer to argue for the government after today.
- Trump (and Bannon) must realize he is in a no-lose situation. If he wins this case in the Supreme Court, his actions will be vindicated, and he can boast of protecting us all from Islamist terrorists. If he loses, and another Muslim commits an act of terror in the U.S. (which is bound to happen in the next four years, though I pray it doesn't), he will blame the courts. He has already prepared his followers for that eventuality in one of his recent tweets. That will show the world (or at least those of a certain bent) that he alone can save us. Either way, he wins.
- Does anyone else see the irony in the fact that the lead party suing the President is the state named after our first President? You know, the one who admitted to chopping down the cherry tree because he could not tell a lie?
Good analysis! The only place I might disagree is that the federal government has some case law on its side for a no-review position, at least with respect to aliens outside the U.S. who have not previously been here. I think the federal government should lose because I am persuaded by Adam Cox that those precedents are outdated, (see https://www.justsecurity.org/36988/muslim-ban-held-unconstitutional-myth-unconstrained-immigration-power/ ), but the argument is less terrible than it might appear.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why anyone is listening to Alan Dershowitz. His legal analysis has been consistently bad on both this issue and the Sally Yates issue. He has maintained for weeks on TV that the government case is solid, which is misleading and, frankly, nonsense. Also a TRO can only last a maximum of 20 days and there is nothing in the FRCP that allows appeal of a TRO. The duration is always discretionary and usually lasts until a PI hearing. The Washington Solicitor General is right that the only way to lift the TRO is a writ of mandamus.
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